Midwest Independence Day Weather Statistics

The Fourth of July is nearly here and the Midwest has firmly settled into a warm pattern. Average highs for the 4th are typically in the mid-80s, with normal lows tending to fall back around or just below 65°F. With that being said, there has been a lot of variability over the years, with readings ranging the gambit from scorching hot, to at times, unusually chilly. Since 1872, Chicago has seen 25 days with highs reaching over 90 degrees (approximately 15% of days), while just two of those days saw the mercury climb to over 100°F. On the flip side, 19 days saw the temperature fail to rise over 70 degrees, and 32 years saw lows dip back down into the 40s and 50s. Indianapolis has seen similar trends, with about 20% of days reaching 90 degrees and 2 of these meeting or exceeding 100°F. As for low temperatures, over 80% of days have seen readings fall into either the 50s or 60s...with the rest falling between 70 and 75 or cooling back into the upper 40s.

While there is not a large threat of rainfall on the Fourth of July, thunderstorms have brought large amounts of rain to the region in the past. Sometimes large groups of thunderstorm complexes, often referred to as "mesoscale convective systems," can push through, bringing hours of showers and storms. Record rainfall for both Chicago and Indianapolis occurred on days of such thunderstorm activity...with over one to two inches of rain being reported in both instances. With that being said, most days see very little in the way of precipitation...with generally 10% or fewer days seeing over a quarter inch of rain in both Chicago and Indianapolis In fact, nearly half of all such days see no precipitation whatsoever...making for ideal conditions when viewing fireworks, such as those put on at Navy Pier in Chicago or Region Bank Tower in Indianapolis.

Fortunately this looks to be the case this year, with nearly picture perfect conditions for both Independence Day itself, as well as the vast majority of the holiday weekend. Look for temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s along with mostly sunny skies across most Midwest locations during the period. Humidity levels will also be relatively low, making for comfortable conditions for any outdoor festivities you may have.