Gain an Edge with Long-Range Forecasts

Posted: August 14, 2013, 11:04 am by ntroiano

Surprised by yet another July of above average temperatures? Clients that utilize WeatherWorks Long Range Forecast products weren’t! Our long-range team of meteorologists continually monitor global oscillation patterns and utilize innovative industry techniques in order to compile our suite of products. These procedures aided in our recent success regarding our July forecast, which is perhaps one of the trickiest in recent memory. Coming off a cool and wet June, sticking with the above normal temperature forecast for July was viewed as a particularly gutsy call across the meteorological community - especially as other private weather firms and government organizations hedged against their previously warmer than normal forecasts. Unfortunately for these groups, July 2013 featured well above average readings across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US…with positive departures ranging from two to six degrees removed from climatology (see graphic below).

 


Click image for full size.

 

Looking below, one of our long-range temperature products dating back to June 15th called for above normal readings for much of the Northeast, with the greatest likelihood of occurrence across interior and Northern New England. Additionally, our long range forecast team called for hotter than normal conditions for much of the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West. They also felt strongly that there would be an expansive area of below average temperatures across most of the Southeast. When compared to the actual verification maps (recall the previous image), the forecast temperature pattern was in fact seen across most areas. Although cooler than average readings across the Southeast were more widespread than originally anticipated, there is no doubt the general idea is similar in composition. With temperature verification like this (and thinking about winter implications), you may already want to email our sales staff and sign up or upgrade your service; but did the precipitation outlook come to fruition as well? Read on...

 


Click image for full size.

 

The precipitation forecast for the same time frame also verified with a high degree of accuracy. The forecast called for above normal precipitation across parts of Texas and the Southeast, with largely drier than normal conditions for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest. This general trend is depicted well in the observed verification maps, making these forecasts valuable at a lead time of greater than one month. For reference, the July forecast from the WeatherWorks official Summer Outlook (dating back to the first week of May) has also been included (see below). Even more than 60 days out, the general forecast still featured recognizable skill across most locations. Compare the forecasts for yourself using the images below.

 


Click image for full size.

 

Would your company benefit from this kind of knowledge one to two months in advance? With the end of summer quickly approaching, and winter just around the corner the time for your firm to make a weather plan-of-action is now. Giving yourself a competitive edge in the snow and ice industry is everything and can keep your firm well ahead of the competition. With crucial decisions regarding staffing to seasonal supplies arriving shortly, can you afford to be caught off guard this winter? Contact Kevin Hopler (kevinhopler@weatherworksinc.com) to sign up or upgrade your service today! Besides our general Long Range Forecasts, we’ll be glad to show you even more detailed products like Winter Risk - which can provide you with the necessary long range weather forecast information to increase your company's bottom line!

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