2013 - 14 Winter Forecast Tops the Competition

Posted: April 7, 2014, 5:42 pm by ntroiano

Did this winter season’s severe cold and excessive snow come as a surprise to you? It wouldn't have if you subscribed to WeatherWorks suite of long-range forecasts. Our team of dedicated meteorologists continually monitors global atmospheric oscillation patterns along with current conditions in order to compile comprehensive seasonal and monthly outlooks. The complete outlook for this past winter season (defined from December 1, 2013 to February 28, 2014) was issued back on October 18, 2013 and was meant to serve as a guide to our clients on what to expect for the upcoming season. Verification or observed conditions during this time period are depicted below in terms of both temperature and precipitation departures.

Note how extreme cold conditions gripped much of the Midwest and Northeast during the 3-month period. In general, departures ranged from 6 to more than 10 degrees below average across the Ohio Valley, Midwest and Upper Plain States. Conditions were not much better across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where readings for the big cities along the I-95 corridor all averaged between 2 and 4 degrees below normal for the winter season (see image above). The highest departures occurred in the months of January and February, when temperatures averaged between 4 and 8 degrees below normal across these same locations.

Along with the cold there was plenty of snow to go around for almost all areas. Chicago experienced their 3rd snowiest winter (December through February) on record, with 67.3 inches accumulated through February 28th. Indianapolis fared even better, seeing their largest meteorological winter snow accumulation on record – with 52.3 inches. Virtually all the major cities across the Northeast from the Mason-Dixon Line northward have also seen one of their snowiest winters on record. Both Newark and Philadelphia have received over 60 inches of snow this season, while places such as Islip, Bridgeport, and Boston all finished with snowfall totals exceeding 55 inches. Although Baltimore and Washington D.C. have not seen quite as much, their totals also averaged 5 to 10 inches above normal.

As can be seen from the maps above, WeatherWorks captured this idea quite accurately. These images were included in our Winter Forecast and were available to all our clients by the third week in October, 2013. Note the large and expansive area of below normal temperatures that were highlighted across the Midwest, Northeast and New England. The highest likelihood of occurrence specifically targeted the Upper Plains and Midwest (darkest shading of blue), where this winter ended up ranking within the top-5 coldest for numerous locations. The snowfall outlook proved even more useful to our clients; most of which work in the snow and ice industry. The threat for above average snowfall is highlighted region-wide…which gave our subscribers a good idea of the busy winter they were in store for.

Could your company benefit from this kind of insight more than one to two months in advance? Contact Kevin Hopler to sign up or upgrade your service package today! If you are interested in more than seasonal outlooks, be sure to ask about one of our more detailed products such as Winter Risk – where we provide week by week forecasts up to a month in advance in order to increase your company’s bottom line!

With crucial decisions regarding staffing and seasonal supplies on the line, don’t risk your potential profits based on a free or easily accessible online forecasts! The image below shows the winter forecast for the December, 2013 through February, 2014 time period compiled by the Climate Prediction Center (part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; run by the US Government) released last November. Note how the cold temperatures were greatly underdone, almost to the point of being non-existent. They even indicated that parts of New England could see above normal readings – which never ended up panning out. In terms of precipitation (The CPC does not issue official snowfall forecasts), no indication one way or another was given for the region – with equal chances broad-brushed across all locations.

Even several other private weather firms did not capture the winter forecast as a whole as well as WeatherWorks. Although most of these did focus on the above normal snow and cold weather potential across the Midwest, the extent of it was far underdone for the most part. Additionally, although parts of the Eastern Seaboard did see a variable start in terms of temperatures and snowfall, the active and harsh end to winter was not highlighted to the extent that our forecast detailed.

When it comes to snow and ice forecasting, WeatherWorks meteorologists really are your weather experts. To inquire more about how we can better serve your business contact us today!

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