A Snowy Start To The Weekend
Winter is here - and here to stay. After not 1, but 2 wintry events this week alone, a third is on the way Saturday. Once again, it looks to produce some of that white stuff from the Mid-Atlantic throughout New England. This time, there is no sleet or freezing rain to deal with; it will mainly be snow. The one caveat to the forecast is where does the rain / snow line set up. Let's examine the possibilities and the set up below.
Overall, this will be a light to moderate snow event for the Northeast. However, it would only take a few things to go just right for this to be a more significant Nor'easter. Unfortunately for you snow lovers, that does not look to be the case and we will not have a storm for the record books. That is because the system does not get its act together until it is too late. Take a look at the image below. On the left is the set-up around daybreak tomorrow morning. Notice how there are two distinct low pressures at that time, rather than one consolidated area. At that point, the two pieces of energy (a northern stream piece and southern stream piece) have not "phased" or joined together yet. This is a process that happens with nearly every major snowstorm we get. By the evening, however, we see that a coastal low has formed, but it is just a bit too late as it races offshore. Should this low strengthen just a few hours earlier, totals could be slightly higher in parts of New Jersey and Southern New England.
So, what does this mean. Well, the top image shows a general 2 - 4 inch event for many of us. That seems pretty straightforward at this point. The tricky part of the forecast is determining where the rain / snow line will set up, and how much mixing takes place. Right now we are thinking the 95 corridor from DC to Baltimore is a good line, then extends through Central DE and the Southeast portion of NJ. That also extends into parts of Long Island, and the Cape in MA. Areas that mix are more likely to see less than 2". That is our current thinking and what we expect to happen. For updates be sure to keep an eye on our facebook and twitter feed. Happy Friday, and enjoy the snow Saturday!