Potential Snowstorm Late This Week

Posted: February 6, 2013, 6:32 am by mmurphy

After the series of small storms (clippers) we have been seeing lately, it now looks like we will see a break and a return to some quiet weather for most areas today and into the day Thursday. However, this break will not last long; as a potential major storm looms on the horizon for late Thursday night into Saturday...

There remains much uncertainty with this potential storm, as it is quite complex. The latest data shows that there will be three pieces of atmospheric energy coming together to help form this storm. Two pieces of energy will be associated with the southern jet stream, while another will be associated with the northern jet stream. If all three can merge together, we will have the makings of a major storm. One of the more reliable weather models, the ECMWF or European, does show the potential for significant snowfall, mostly north of I-80 in PA and NJ into New England. The highest certainty for heavy snowfall will be across eastern New England; where there is the possibility 6 or more inches of snow, with over 1 foot not out of the question. We'll have more on this storm as the details become clearer.

(Above) European Model depiction of the three pieces of energy that must merge together in order for a large coastal storm to form. Disturbances #1 and #3 are associated with the southern jet stream, while #2 is the stronger piece associated with the northern jet stream (Valid 7pm Thursday)

(Above) The European Model depiction of precipitation amounts through Sunday morning. From approximately I-80 north you can multiply the numbers on the right side by 10 to see approximate snowfall amounts. Keep in mind that this is just one model run, and not our current snowfall forecast.

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