For those in the Northeast, focus will be glued to this Friday - Saturday (January 22 - 23) for what could be the first widespread and significant snow event of the season. And if all goes right, winter may be turning its gears from 0 to 60 in a hurry. While the pattern is not that favorable for a large scale storm, a strong disturbance will move from west to east this week. And as it does, some phasing (or joining) with other disturbances will occur, resulting in the formation of a larger, stronger storm that originates near the Gulf and rides up the East Coast. To be honest, this storm taking the right track for snow is a matter of luck, but it does appear that luck is on our side (if you are looking for snow). Forecast models have unusually high confidence and consistency regarding the overall timing and track of the storm, which will take the classic track for a solid nor'easter.
(Image courtesy of www.tropicaltidbits.com)
As seen in the image loop, the overall progression is for snow to overspread the mid-Atlantic during the day Friday. As the low pressure begins to strengthen, snow will begin to spread northward, while warmer ocean air brings rain for the coast. As the storm continues to strengthen just off the coast, heavy snow will fly from New Hampshire to Virginia during the overnight, into the day Saturday before slowly pulling offshore. But before it does we could be talking about significant accumulations. How much you ask? Well, certain models suggest over a foot is possible for parts of the mid-Atlantic, into New England. But being 100 hours out, we caution people to not take that forecast verbatim, but rather understand it is a possibility and to continue monitoring things over the next few days as confidence increases.
What else could this storm bring? Well, the term "blizzard" is thrown around too often, however may be fitting for this storm. A snowstorm is classified as a blizzard when there is at least 3 consecutive hours of heavy snow producing poor visibility (less than quarter mile) with sustained winds of at least 35 mph. A storm is only a blizzard if it meets both the heavy snow and wind thresholds. And with the track of the low pressure, strong N-NE winds with gusts of 30 - 50 mph are likely, further making for treacherous conditions. For coastal regions, the combination of these strong winds plus a full moon will result in a significant coastal flooding risk as well. All in all, if things stay on track, this storm will throw just about everything at the Northeast. As we get closer and confidence increases we will provide a more detailed forecast, but the takeaway is this storm means business and could be our first real region-wide winter storm of the year.
